Couldn't agree more. Your insight into the 2% target's arbitrary origin truely resonates. It brings back thoughts from your earlier briefings on policy foundations. Very smart.
The TSMC section really nails why the bubble narrative doesn't hold up - when you have exponential growth in token procesing requirements it's hard to see how demand could collapse quickly even if AI hype cools. What struck me most is the contrast between skeptics pointing to circular financing (OpenAI/Nvidia example) and TSMC's actual visibility across the entire supply chain from Apple to AMD. That kind of broad-based demand is hard to fake. The Arizona gigafab acceleration is intresting too because it shows TSMC is willing to eat those higher US costs to maintain strategic positioning, even though it's clearly dilutive to margins short-term. Still, at 23x forward with this growth trajectory, feels like the market is priced for a lot more skeptisism than TSMC's management tone suggests.
Couldn't agree more. Your insight into the 2% target's arbitrary origin truely resonates. It brings back thoughts from your earlier briefings on policy foundations. Very smart.
Thank you!
The TSMC section really nails why the bubble narrative doesn't hold up - when you have exponential growth in token procesing requirements it's hard to see how demand could collapse quickly even if AI hype cools. What struck me most is the contrast between skeptics pointing to circular financing (OpenAI/Nvidia example) and TSMC's actual visibility across the entire supply chain from Apple to AMD. That kind of broad-based demand is hard to fake. The Arizona gigafab acceleration is intresting too because it shows TSMC is willing to eat those higher US costs to maintain strategic positioning, even though it's clearly dilutive to margins short-term. Still, at 23x forward with this growth trajectory, feels like the market is priced for a lot more skeptisism than TSMC's management tone suggests.