The Investor's Briefing #17
Copart Market Share Loss, Nvidia Can't Hold, Dior Expert Call, AppFolio Investor Meeting
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Welcome to the seventeenth edition of our weekly newsletter: The Investor’s Briefing.
Announcement: 3Q25 Earnings
Published a New Update on Copart! Check it out below
Copart 1Q26 Business Update: Do Volume Slips Threaten Quality Compounder Status?
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Published: Copart, Constellation Software, Airbnb, Appfolio, Axon, APi Global, CoStar Group, Coupang, Evolution, Floor & Decor, LVMH, Meta, Perimeter Solutions
Upcoming: Casey’s and RH
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LVMH Expert Call Interview
LVMH has rallied +40% from summer lows.
Were fears of a paradigm shift in luxury overblown, or are investors overlooking key risks?
To find out, I sat down with Claire Kent, an advisor and former board member of Prada, to discuss how the luxury landscape is evolving and what investors should be paying attention to.
You can watch this conversation for free in the link below!
Watch Here
In Financial News.
Nvidia’s standout earnings initially ignited a global rally, but the enthusiasm quickly faded. Major indexes reversed sharply Thursday, marking the largest intraday swing since April’s tariff-driven market turmoil and extending a difficult stretch for the stocks most closely associated with the AI boom. The pullback underscored how investors have come expect—and price in— ever increasing expectations.
Nvidia grew revenues 62%, adding over $22 billion in revenues y/y for the quarter, their most ever. They enjoyed only a small after hours gain before leading the market into a selloff. Investors started to worry that if such a strong quarter from AI’s bellwether stock could lead to muted reactions, then perhaps the bull market is becoming overstretched.
The cost of credit-default swaps tied to Oracle, a key supplier of computing capacity and purchaser of Nvidia chips, has risen nearly 50% since mid-October, a sign of rising caution over how tech companies are financing the AI build-out. As a result of investor’s skittishness, the Nasdaq sold off almost -4% on Thursday. There was a slight reversal Friday for the Nasdaq to close down -2.25% for the week, with the S&P down less at -1.7%. Bitcoin also had a tough week, dropping 10% to $85k and is now down -31% from its peak price of $124k
The volatility coincided with the release of a long-delayed September jobs report, which ended a weeks-long blackout in economic data caused by the U.S. government shutdown. The report showed the U.S. added 119,000 positions, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%. A higher unemployment rate could give the Fed more reason to cut rates in December. On Friday, New York Fed President John Williams seemed to signal a possibility of a further adjustment in the near-term. While his phrasing is purposefully vague, traders believed it meant the Fed it now leaning more towards a December rate cut with the likelihood now priced at 73%.
Company News.
Dior Executive Sees Luxury Market Returning to Growth in 2026
A former Dior executive says the luxury market is emerging from a difficult reset and could enter a healthier growth phase by 2026, provided brands deliver genuine product innovation, especially in handbags, and manage pricing discipline for aspirational customers.
The expert said the industry is “moving out of the quiet-luxury phase” that followed the post-Covid logo boom. Recent Paris Fashion Week collections, they argued, signaled a shift back toward “bolder but still refined” fashion.
Sentiment is improving ahead of the sales data, they said. Designer changes across nearly every major house have been well received, reigniting anticipation among core and aspirational clients. At the same time, key travel customers are reappearing: Asian demand is strengthening, and high-spending Saudi clients returned to the U.S. this summer after several weak years.
Still, North America’s aspirational buyer remains under pressure. Steep price increases have “self-selected some people out of luxury,” she warned. Chanel classic flaps moved from roughly $2,000 to $12,000 over a decade, the Lady Dior from about $3,000 to $7,000. By contrast, she stated that Louis Vuitton has maintained a more robust entry price architecture and logo canvas business, helping it keep the aspirational consumer in the fold.
For LVMH specifically, the expert cited “mega-flagship” investments, such as Dior’s new 57th Street and Rodeo Drive houses, and Louis Vuitton’s theatrical Asian projects, plus excitement around new creative directors like Jonathan Anderson at Dior, as key reasons the outlook has brightened, even if the macro backdrop and middle-tier customers remain fragile.
LVMH trades at 28x earnings.
This is from an AlphaSense Expert Call Interview.
You can get a free trial of AlphaSense here
AppFolio 2025 Investor Meeting
Appfolio had its 2025 Investor Meeting this week. The main focus of the call was differentiation and adoption. They stated that at the center is the unique AppFolio Performance Platform, which unifies three core layers: a system of record for data, a system of action for automated execution, and a system of growth for monetizing the resident and owner experience.
A key differentiator they emphasized was RealmX Performers, which is an agentic AI solution for leasing and maintenance. This innovation is driving tangible customer success, evidenced by RealmX Flows users reporting 20% higher resident retention and a 30% increase in collection rates for early adopters.
Turning to adoption, they mentioned that units on Plus/Max tiers increased from 10% to 25% since 2022. In addition, 96% customers now use AppFolio’s Realm AI tools, which is up from 40% three years ago. This has led to average revenue per unit (ARPU) growing from $66 in 2022 to $103 today.
Apply a 30% mature margin, Appfolio trades at 39x earnings.
Please note that we are considering discontinuing this weekly news wrap up of the newsletter. So if you do enjoy it, please let us know now. Listen to our Briefing podcast episode for more of an explanation as to why.
The Synopsis Podcast.
In case you missed it, we released an Article episode reading the APi Global business history. We hope you enjoy!
Upcoming.
Research
Current research report in progress: Shift4, the payment provider. Shift4 caught our attention because it is in a generally sticky industry (payments + software), still has founder involvement, is growing topline over >20%, and is down -46% from peak. Stay tuned for more!
Business updates on Casey’s and RH
Sharing Links.
Check out Speedwell Research’s Drew Cohen’s YouTube Channel. It is focused on general investing and business content.
The Stock Market Looks Expensive—Now What
Other Links.
A Letter a Day: Arista Networks President & CEO and Morgan Stanley Managing Director- The Startup Mindset Powering Arista Networks (link)
Alex Morris at TSOH Research: I Don’t Defend This Logic-Thoughts on Never Sell (link)
Stratechery: Robotaxis and Suburbia (link)
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